icpdn 2026 Session 3

Session 3: Shifting Morals, Rising Tensions: Managing Conflict Locally and Globally

This session explores the effects of moral ambiguity on conflict and cohesion at local, national, and international levels. It examines how shifting ethical values and unclear moral guidance can intensify tensions, weaken trust, and challenge relationships within communities and between nations. The session also considers how disparities and inequalities contribute to misunderstandings and conflict. Participants will investigate approaches to strengthen moral clarity, foster cooperation, and manage conflicts effectively, aiming to build more inclusive, resilient, and harmonious societies across all levels of human interaction.

Moderator:

Main idea: To frame the session by shifting the definition of peace away from military operations and casualties toward the role of morality, dialogue, and international collaboration in managing conflicts.
Important points:

Redefining Peace through Morality:
Emphasized that peace in the context of this discussion should not merely refer to the military cessation of conflict or a post-fighting agreement, but must focus fundamentally on morality and shifting values.
The Power of Grounded Collaboration:
Highlighted that local and international challenges cannot be solved by any single country acting in isolation; true conflict management requires active dialogue and continuous collaborative work.

Lt Gen Dr Wandee Tosuwan
Division Deputy Director / Special Researcher, Military Research and Development Center, Defence Science and Technology Department

Speakers:

1. Mr Malik Ayub Sumbal
Geopolitical Analyst, Journalist, Broadcaster, Founder of The Caucasus Center for Strategic and International Studies

Main idea: To advocate for the vital role of local-level action, community placement, and long-term trust building in successfully preventing and diffusing conflicts, even amidst shifting geopolitical tensions.
Important points:

Rising Trends of Violence in Asia-Pacific:
Noted that while Asia and the Pacific historically avoided global trajectories of rising conflict, data from the last five years reveals a clear increase in local, domestic, and international violence within the region.
The Value of Action From Below:
Argued that because approximately 17 of the region's largest, longest-running conflicts are subnational or local, peace initiatives must actively focus on addressing local dynamics and grievances.
Five Critical Factors for Local Engagement:
Outlined five pillars essential for conflict prevention: placing communities at the center, building long-term trust, strengthening state-community relationships, remaining agile/flexible, and utilizing evidence-based research.
Successful Aligned Networks:
Provided the example of a village-level early warning network in Bangladesh that successfully reduced political and extremist violence by opening communication lines between local leaders and the police.

2. Dr Adam Burke
Senior Director of Peace and Stability at The Asia Foundation

Main idea: To present global frameworks and philosophical dialogue as practical roadmaps to resolve global governance dilemmas and restore the inner peace required for external social order.
Important points:

The Paradox of Modern Development:
Pointed out that despite humanity possessing unprecedented material abundance and technological tools, global governance is facing a severe dilemma due to the loss of an ethical foundation for living together.
China's Global Initiatives:
Maintained that frameworks such as the Global Development Initiative (GDI), Global Security Initiative (GSI), Global Civilization Initiative (GCI), and Global Governance Initiative (GGI) serve as practical structures for shared human futures.
True Dialogue over Negotiation:
Defined true dialogue not as debate or transactional negotiation, but as real listening that uncovers mutual fears and hopes while drawing on diverse cultural philosophies like Buddhist non-violence and Confucian harmony.
Cooperation Overcoming Geopolitical Tension:
Suggested that global multi-stakeholder initiatives and active collaboration in critical fields—such as green energy and AI guardrails—can loosen severe bilateral tensions, such as those between China and the US.

3. Prof Dr Zhou Zhanggui
Secretary General of the International Collaboration Mechanism for Overseas Safety and Security, Zhejiang University, China

Main idea: To demonstrate that modern socio-political unrest and technological shifts represent a profound crisis of trust and legitimacy, which can only be corrected through a strict framework of moral governance.
Important points:

The South Asian Gen Z Crisis of Trust:
Highlighted widespread waves of public unrest across Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Nepal, arguing that these youth movements are deeper demands for accountability, fairness, and ethical leadership rather than just economic relief.
AI and the Loss of Human Judgment:
Warned about the ethical dangers of rapidly advancing Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) and "digital twins," noting that technology lacks the human capacity to pause, reflect, and wrestle with moral uncertainty.
The Breach of Social Contracts:
Displayed how systemic corruption and institutional weaknesses directly erode a government's legitimacy, forcing citizens to turn to digital platforms to mobilize rapid, powerful regime changes.
The Economic Crimes and Geopolitical Index:
Introduced a newly developed index designed to measure the severity of economic crimes, public perception, and geopolitical instability to better anticipate political uncertainty and public anger.
The Four Pillars of Moral Governance:
Proposed a foundational framework consisting of ethical governance (transparency and accountability), institutional trust, state resilience against shocks, and human security (protecting dignity and livelihood).

4. Prof Asanga Abeyagoonasekera
Senior Fellow and Executive Director of South Asia Foresight Network at The Millennium Project, US